Reflections on Famine: Gaza and Beyond - Geary Lecture 2026

Abstract

On 22 August 2025, the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (or IPC for short) declared a famine “with reasonable evidence” in Gaza. Its hesitancy reflected its inability to obtain enough hard evidence on its criteria for establishing the presence of a Phase 5-level (i.e. famine). Here, we discuss the limitations of the IPC’s benchmarks and by what alternative definition the crisis in Gaza constituted a famine. This entails putting what happened in Gaza after 2024-2025 in economic context and discussing the evidence for excess mortality. An emphasis is placed on the usefulness of price data when other measures fail.